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One moment while the latest numbers come in.
D-backs4
Padres10
Royals2
Mets6
Blue Jays10
Giants0
Braves3
Pirates0
Mariners0
Marlins2
Yankees0
Rays3
Athletics1
Tigers6
Astros2
Nationals8
Cubs9
Orioles7
Red Sox5
White Sox0
Brewers1
Cardinals5
Phillies5
Reds11
Guardians5
Twins6
Angels13
Rangers1
Rockies3
Dodgers4Rangers were 64% favorites at home — and lost to the Angels.
Pre-game probability combines Projected Wins and home-field advantage.
A home run worth 4 bases on contact worth just 0.68.
Off the bat: 94.2 mph — 0.68 est. bases, went for a home run.
3.87 expected · 0.00 actual
Worst ball: 107.5 mph · 2.92 est. bases — out
Ranked by how much is at stake and how close we expect them to be — playoff odds and the simulator's pre-game favorite come from the MLB Stats API schedule. The favorite reflects each team's season-long strength (Projected Wins), not tonight's lineups or probable pitchers. 7 marquee matchups on deck.
Yankees50-4299% PORays54-3699% POTwo contenders, a near coin-flip
Brewers58-34100% POCardinals48-4337% POA contender vs. a bubble team, a close matchup
Mariners47-4674% POMarlins51-4247% POBoth teams in the race, a near coin-flip
Our simulator re-plays every game to estimate the wins each team earned. The biggest gaps between deserved and actual records:
Top three hitters by estimated bases per plate appearance. Min 100 PA.